I Might Be Wrong, But I Doubt It: Week Three Preview Ravens @ Rams

Anthony Bafaro

Tony Softli wrote a very uplifting article on Tuesday forecasting the Rams upcoming matchup, and likely victory, over the Baltimore Ravens.  He noted that when he went back and reviewed the film of the Eagles and Giants games he saw that, “The Rams have outplayed both of their opponents but they self-destructed with turnovers and penalties.”  He goes on to suggest that Ray Lewis’ athleticism is ever waning, that Haloti Ngata is playing slow and with poor technique, and that while Ed Reed is “still dangerous” the Raven’s are vulnerable at the cornerback position.  He does give the Ravens' offense plenty of credit, referring to Ray Rice as “one of the league's most elusive all-purpose running backs with power” and anointing Aquan Boldin as, “…the best running back after the catch at the receiver position in the NFL.”  He summarizes the article by saying, “I'm not buying the hype on the Ravens. On film they looked tired, old, sluggish and non-productive in their game against Tennessee, and I think they are beatable Sunday in the Lou.”  He projects a Rams’ victory, 20-17.

Rams’ Offense vs. Ravens’ Defense

The Ravens are vulnerable at the cornerback position, but so were the Giants, a matchup that yielded an abundance of yards, but only a single passing touchdown.  Additionally, the Giants have no one in their secondary that plays at an Ed Reed level.  At 33 years old Reed is still arguably the best safety in football.  He’s coming off of a season in which he played in only ten games and still led the NFL in interceptions.  Ngata and Lewis may be playing slow, but it does not appear to be affecting their ability to plug run gaps, as the Ravens come into week three with the fourth ranked run defense in the NFL.  This ranking is compounded by the fact that both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams are questionable to play and certainly will not be one hundred percent if they do.  The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air.  The question is whether they can be balanced enough to keep the Ravens honest and prevent Ed Reed from reaping the benefits of a full on pass rush.

Rams’ Defense vs. Ravens’ Offense

 The Rams’ run defense, in terms of yardage, is the worst in the NFL.  This is somewhat skewed by the fact that Michael Vick rushed for 98 yards in week one, but even if you look exclusively at running backs they are allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  It’s an aggressive run defense that leaves itself susceptible to cutbacks and screens, two strengths of Ray Rice.  Anquan Boldin is an elite receiver, particularly after the catch.  Bradley Fletcher has the ability to contain him, but he must make a greater effort in making a play on the ball and avoiding interference calls.  From a schematic standpoint, it will be interesting to see how the Rams plan to matchup with the two young receiving tight ends, Edward Dickson and Dennis Pitta.  With Leber and Poppinga lacking the athleticism, and Justin King lacking the size to defend either in man coverage, Laurinaitis may be forced into playing a lot of Cover-one/Cover-two zone, putting a lot of pressure on the Rams’ defensive line to keep Rice from running up the gut.  The Rams will pressure the quarterback, they always do.  Unfortunately, the dynamic ability of Ray Rice as both a runner and a receiver is the perfect remedy for said pressure.

I have a lot of respect for Tony Softli, no question, but I adamantly disagree with his assessment of this match up.  I do not agree that the Rams have outplayed their opponents in the first two weeks.  You don’t get outscored 59-29 by outplaying your opponents.  While it’s true that the Rams have looked good at times, all of those turnovers, penalties, dropped passes, etc. were not acts of god.  Ball security, discipline, and focus are attributes, no different than pass rushing, run blocking, or throwing accuracy.  All attributes, collectively, are what determine whether or not you outplay your opponent.  I’m not saying that the Rams cannot win this game.  This is the NFL after all, any given Sunday and all that.  They are at home and they’re desperate to avoid an 0-3 start.  If they’re going to have a chance they need to win the turnover battle and reign in the mental mistakes.  They also need to find a way to stop the run.  Most importantly, they need Steven Jackson to play and to play well.  They just do not have enough play making depth to compete with elite teams without their best player.

If all of those things happen, they can beat the Ravens, and I’ll have to tip my hat to Tony for calling it.  Unfortunately, we've yet to see a game where any of those things happen.