I Might Be Wrong, But I Doubt It: Week Three Preview Ravens @ Rams

Anthony Bafaro

Tony Softli wrote a very uplifting article on Tuesday forecasting the Rams upcoming matchup, and likely victory, over the Baltimore Ravens.  He noted that when he went back and reviewed the film of the Eagles and Giants games he saw that, “The Rams have outplayed both of their opponents but they self-destructed with turnovers and penalties.”  He goes on to suggest that Ray Lewis’ athleticism is ever waning, that Haloti Ngata is playing slow and with poor technique, and that while Ed Reed is “still dangerous” the Raven’s are vulnerable at the cornerback position.  He does give the Ravens' offense plenty of credit, referring to Ray Rice as “one of the league's most elusive all-purpose running backs with power” and anointing Aquan Boldin as, “…the best running back after the catch at the receiver position in the NFL.”  He summarizes the article by saying, “I'm not buying the hype on the Ravens. On film they looked tired, old, sluggish and non-productive in their game against Tennessee, and I think they are beatable Sunday in the Lou.”  He projects a Rams’ victory, 20-17.

Rams’ Offense vs. Ravens’ Defense

The Ravens are vulnerable at the cornerback position, but so were the Giants, a matchup that yielded an abundance of yards, but only a single passing touchdown.  Additionally, the Giants have no one in their secondary that plays at an Ed Reed level.  At 33 years old Reed is still arguably the best safety in football.  He’s coming off of a season in which he played in only ten games and still led the NFL in interceptions.  Ngata and Lewis may be playing slow, but it does not appear to be affecting their ability to plug run gaps, as the Ravens come into week three with the fourth ranked run defense in the NFL.  This ranking is compounded by the fact that both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams are questionable to play and certainly will not be one hundred percent if they do.  The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air.  The question is whether they can be balanced enough to keep the Ravens honest and prevent Ed Reed from reaping the benefits of a full on pass rush.

Rams’ Defense vs. Ravens’ Offense

 The Rams’ run defense, in terms of yardage, is the worst in the NFL.  This is somewhat skewed by the fact that Michael Vick rushed for 98 yards in week one, but even if you look exclusively at running backs they are allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  It’s an aggressive run defense that leaves itself susceptible to cutbacks and screens, two strengths of Ray Rice.  Anquan Boldin is an elite receiver, particularly after the catch.  Bradley Fletcher has the ability to contain him, but he must make a greater effort in making a play on the ball and avoiding interference calls.  From a schematic standpoint, it will be interesting to see how the Rams plan to matchup with the two young receiving tight ends, Edward Dickson and Dennis Pitta.  With Leber and Poppinga lacking the athleticism, and Justin King lacking the size to defend either in man coverage, Laurinaitis may be forced into playing a lot of Cover-one/Cover-two zone, putting a lot of pressure on the Rams’ defensive line to keep Rice from running up the gut.  The Rams will pressure the quarterback, they always do.  Unfortunately, the dynamic ability of Ray Rice as both a runner and a receiver is the perfect remedy for said pressure.

I have a lot of respect for Tony Softli, no question, but I adamantly disagree with his assessment of this match up.  I do not agree that the Rams have outplayed their opponents in the first two weeks.  You don’t get outscored 59-29 by outplaying your opponents.  While it’s true that the Rams have looked good at times, all of those turnovers, penalties, dropped passes, etc. were not acts of god.  Ball security, discipline, and focus are attributes, no different than pass rushing, run blocking, or throwing accuracy.  All attributes, collectively, are what determine whether or not you outplay your opponent.  I’m not saying that the Rams cannot win this game.  This is the NFL after all, any given Sunday and all that.  They are at home and they’re desperate to avoid an 0-3 start.  If they’re going to have a chance they need to win the turnover battle and reign in the mental mistakes.  They also need to find a way to stop the run.  Most importantly, they need Steven Jackson to play and to play well.  They just do not have enough play making depth to compete with elite teams without their best player.

If all of those things happen, they can beat the Ravens, and I’ll have to tip my hat to Tony for calling it.  Unfortunately, we've yet to see a game where any of those things happen.

The Sky is Not Falling

    I just finished reading Anthony's recap from Monday's game, and I think he does a good job of summing up the feelings of most Rams fans this week: Disappointed.  Since the moment the game ended on Monday night, the theme from St. Louis sports talk radio, the local newspaper and Rams fans everywhere, has been that of disappointment.  Most observers seem upset with the Rams for blowing the game against the Giants, beating themselves with penalties / turnovers and littering the Monday night stage with mind-boggling (almost wacky) roster decisions.  I won't defend the roster (especially, Brandon Gibson and Craig Dahl,) but I will say that I'm not nearly as upset after this game as others seem to be.

    Yes, the Rams made mistakes.  Yes, they committed far too many drive-extending penalties.  Yes, their turnovers were crucial and back-breaking.  Yes, they squandered an opportunity to win the game.  My excitement comes from the fact that they HAD an opportunity to win the game.  Without key starters.  On the road.  On Monday Night Football.

    Think about that for a minute.  The Rams were playing on Monday Night Football.  The franchise last appeared on the week's showcase game on December 11th, 2006.  2006 was same year that Jeff Weaver, Preston Wilson and Ronnie Belliard helped lead the St. Louis Cardinals to a World Championship.  In other words, it's been awhile.  The 2011 Rams are a total of 18 games removed from a disastrous season in 2009, in which they finished 1-15.   The Rams being scheduled to play this, the 2nd game of the year on Monday Night Football shows that the franchise is working it's way back to relevance.  So, the Rams travel to New York to play another 0-1 team in the Giants.  The Giants were also banged-up, but they were playing at home and they needed a win.  They travel to Philadelphia now in Week 3.  A loss against the Rams on Monday Night would have left the Giants staring at an 0-3 start and Tom Coughlin staring at the beginning of the end of his run as the team's head coach.  All in all, the Giants felt pressure and urgency to win this game.  The Giants came into the game with Vegas favoring them by 7 points, and we all know just how good Vegas is at making predictions.  The Giants had to win, were favored to win, and therefore, SHOULD have won.  And, they did.  But, the game also provided Rams fans reasons to remain optimistic.

     The Rams simply looked like the better team in this game.  They looked more explosive than the Giants, shown through Danario Alexander's 68 yard run and catch in the 1st quarter.    The Rams out-gained the Giants 367 yards to 300.  Sam Bradford threw for a career high 331 yards.  The previously mentioned Alexander had his first career 100 yard game.  Mike Sims-Walker added 92 yards on 6 catches.  It's clear he can help.  The offense overall was impressive.  They did struggle in the red zone and Bradford did complete less than 50% of his passes.  But, the team made plays and moved the ball consistently without the presence of the team's best running back (and best player) Steven Jackson, and last season's leading receiver Danny Amendola. The Rams held Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to a 3.1 yard / carry average.  The Rams also stifled Eli Manning and the Giants passing attack for most of the game, without the services of starting cornerback Ron Bartell.  A year, or two ago the Rams would have lost this game by 30 points, especially if missing their 2 most most productive skill players and top cornerback.

    My point is this:  The Rams sucked in the red zone, didn't finish drives and constantly beat themselves on Monday night.  While that is disappointing, it's nice to know that they are now at the point of being capable of winning this type of game.  The Rams have put themselves in a position from a talent standpoint, that THEY can actually give away games.  That's not something anyone could have said as recently as 2009.

    If (and it's a big if) the Rams can clean-up their blatant mistakes and get Jackson & Amendola back soon, I still see an 8-8 record ... and an 8-8 record wins the NFC West.  Relax, Rams fans.  There is still plenty to look forward to this season.

Written by: Michael Handshear

Embarrassing: A Recap of Week 2, Rams at Giants

Anthony Bafaro

“…There’s no doubt we will b ready for Monday night”-@Bgibson04

I really think the Rams should have signed Plaxico Burress.  Not only would he have provided a big, veteran, sure-handed receiver to aid in the perpetual failure that is our redzone offense, he also could have preached to the team about just how detrimental it is to shoot yourself in the foot in New York.

This game made me sick to my stomach; there’s no better way to describe it.  I’m not going to take the time to critique every dropped pass, bad penalty, blown coverage, mindless turnover, and questionable play call; there’s plenty of that saturating sports talk radio and fan message boards.  I just want to roll and wallow in my own frustration and misery for a moment.  Look, I get it, this [our offensive performance in the first two weeks] is what is to be expected when you try to implement a new, relatively complicated offensive system in a few weeks time, especially when you’re trying to do so with a mix of inexperienced and untalented players, but there are a few things I just don’t understand.

1) What exactly is Danario Alexander’s role in this offense?  Aaron Ross or not, three catches for 122 is nasty and the knee looked just fine to me as he twisted, somersaulted, remounted, and got after the YAC (@Bgibson04, that stands for Yards After Catch, only you could make three defenders miss and still lose yards after the reception).  Now, it would have been nice of Danario to stretch his arms out and break the plane, but with all this game had to offer, that’s hardly the thing to bitch about.  I am of the mindset that so long as Danario can walk he should be lined up.  There is an argument to be made that the knee can only take so much, that his usage has to be limited.  There is the argument that also due to knee endurance issues he is limited in practice, shrinking the number of plays that can be installed with his name on it.  Okay, I’ll buy it, but if that’s the case those plays must be Redzone packages.  Of course it’s nice to see him knock out 40 yards at a time in acrobatic fashion, but since drafting Bradford, we’ve had no real problem picking up the first 80 yards.  This offense is embarrassing in the Redzone.  Why is that we have no problem calling a fade route in the endzone to the 5’11” Amendola being covered by the 6’2” Cromartie, but we refuse to call such a play when the potential matchup is 6’5” Alexander against 6’0” Ross?  I just don’t get it.

2)  Why did we sign Jerious Norwood?  I didn’t hate the signing, but with SJ39 and Cadillac as the top two backs it would have been nice to have saved a roster spot for a running back that is closer to twenty years old than he is to thirty.  The argument for signing the twenty-eight year old speed back coming off of ACL surgery was that he provided kick/punt return ability.  So why was rookie Greg Salas returning punts on Monday Night Football?  Spags said that with SJ out they didn’t want to risk an injury to Norwood, because if he got hurt and Cadillac got hurt they’d be left with only Quinn Porter at running back, who had no real experience with the offense.  First of all, if you’re really that concerned about players getting injured on returns, why is your number one receiver (Danny boy) also your number one return man?  Secondly, Norwood returned a kick in the Eagles game (a nice return at that) after SJ was injured, when he and Cadillac were the only two running backs with pads on…God damnit!

3)  I do not ever, under any circumstances, want to see Billy Bajema or Craig Dahl on the field again.

I understand that as fans we must be prepared to deal with growing pains.  I understand that we have some major contributors injured (Jackson, Bartell, Amendola, Clayton, Murphy).  I don’t expect this team to play lights out, mistake free football.  What I expect is to not be insulted, to not be lied to, to not be told that, “There’s no doubt we will b ready for Monday night,” when you haven’t the slightest idea what it means to be ready for a professional football game.  

Week Two, Rams at Giants: Offensive Game Plan.

Anthony Bafaro

The key to the Rams offense on Monday night is simple; keep Sam Bradford upright long enough for him to identify whom Corey Webster is covering, then throw it to anyone else. 

As a result of losing CB Terrell Thomas and 2011 first round pick Prince Amukamara to knee and foot injuries respectively, the Giants are reluctantly relying on Aaron Ross to help Corey Webster shut down opponent’s top receiving options.  The result of this reliance in week one was Rex Grossman throwing for over 300 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 62% completion percentage (8% higher than his career average).  Let me be frank; Aaron Ross is not good.  He does not have the ability to provide consistent coverage on any WR in the NFL (except, of course, for Brandon Gibson) and even on the occasion that he finds himself in a position to make a play, he is failed by his distinctly below average ball skills and a tackling ability that is reminiscent of Linehan era game film. 

So which receivers are most likely to benefit from the Giants decimated defensive backfield?  There are several possibilities.  The Giants also lost starting MLB Jonathan Goff for the season and this may open up the middle of the field for rookie TE Lance Kendricks and rookie slot receiver Greg Salas, but the big play opportunities will most likely be on the outside.  Mike-Sims Walker was added via free agency this off season to bolster an abysmal WR core in St. Louis and he may have a better set of pro tools than any receiver on the roster.  Unfortunately, due to a shortened preseason and a week one matchup with Nnamdi Asomugha, the rams have yet to benefit from this acquisition.  On the opposite side of the field, dressing in place of the injured Danny Ammendola, is fan favorite, former Missouri Tiger Danario Alexander.  Danario is consistently injured himself, undergoing a string of knee surgeries before his professional career even began.  Having said that, he is  6’5”, runs a 4.4 40, has a 41” vertical, and in limited playing time has shown a propensity to make big plays on game day.  Both of these receivers will undoubtedly be looking to establish themselves in week two after being non factors in week one and I believe the game plan will oblige them.  The Giants still have a very good man-coverage corner in Corey Webster, but he cannot cover both sides of the field on his own.  The Aaron Ross side should provide big play opportunities for the Rams all day.

Of course, none of this matters if Sam Bradford ends up on his back, or worse, on the training table.  Coming off of a great rookie campaign, Roger Saffold was not especially sharp in the season opener against the Eagles.  Jacob Bell and Jason Brown continue to be disappointing, relative to their pay grade, and Jason Smith, the 2^nd overall pick in the 2009 draft, is almost worthless in pass protection.  Smith not only looks lost when dropping back, but also appears to be overmatched physically when trying to establish a pocket.  (A prime example of Smith’s inept pass protecting ability came with 14:03 left in the 2^nd quarter in week one.  Smith came off of the line of scrimmage a full second later than his line mates, then was apparently confused by the very straight forward, four man rush of the Eagles as he drifted inside to the already blocked Cullen Jenkins, allowing Jason Babin to fly off the edge, unabated, and steamroll Bradford).   The Giants will be without All-Pro DE Osi Umenyiora and the equally dominant Justin Tuck is listed as questionable.  Unfortunately for the Rams, they still have Jason Pierre-Paul.  I was not sold on Paul when the Giants took him 15^th overall in the 2010 draft, attributing much of his collegiate success to his line mate, and former Ram, George Selvie drawing a lot of double team attention, but Paul had a good rookie season, collecting 17 tackles and 4.5 sacks to go along with 2 forced fumbles and 6 pass deflections all while being an almost exclusively third down end.  He’s now getting regular playing time with the injuries to Osi and Tuck, and recorded 5 tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble in the season opener against the Redskins.

New offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has a big play mentality.  Those big plays take time to develop.  How much time, is defined by how well the receivers match up against the defensive backs of the opposition.  The current state of the Giants secondary is on the opposite end of the spectrum from what the Rams faced against the Eagles, so there should be more opportunities for Bradford to get the ball off quickly.  Never the less, even if Justin Tuck does not play, and especially if he does, the entire offensive line needs to step up their play in pass protection; if not, the Rams will limp and hobble out of the Meadowlands with an 0-2 record and a fresh batch of bumps and bruises for Sam Bradford.