Band-aid on the Mouth of a Choking Baby

Anthony Bafaro

I know it’s still early.  I know the Broncos don't score much and they're a run heavy offense, but Brandon Lloyd has zero touchdowns. You have to admit it's kind of funny that this team is adding a player that is racking up a bunch of yardage and not scoring. 

On Wednesday the Rams traded a conditional 2012 draft pick for Broncos’ wide receiver Brandon Lloyd.  After the trade there was a great deal of angry shouting about this move being nothing more than Devany trying to save his job.  I don't really care if it was or not.  If anything this trade is actually an indictment of Devaney’s poor performance that led us to this point; still, it’s nice to see some urgency from any part of this organization.  They recognized a blatant hole and they made a move to fill it, sort of.

What the Rams are Giving Up

What exactly the Rams gave up for Lloyd depends on several factors.  If Brandon has at least 30 catches throughout the rest of the season, the Rams send a 2012 5^th round draft pick to the Broncos; if not, they give up a 6^th round pick.  How much of a loss that draft pick is depends who is doing the drafting for the Rams next April.  Devaney has drafted eight players in the 5^th and 6^th rounds since taking over the Rams’ front office in 2008.  Of those eight players, two are currently on the Rams 53 man roster: often injured tight end Michael Hoomanawanui and defensive lineman Eugene Sims.  If we assume that Devaney keeps his job, they essentially traded a 25% chance at getting a role player. 

It is possible that the Rams actually gave up much more than that by trading for Lloyd.  After week six they were one of three teams in the NFL that were still without a win, and they were clearly the worst of the bunch (Dolphins: 0-5, net points: -53, Colts: 0-6, net points: -59, Rams: 0-5, net points: -88).  It seemed as though they would be lucky to pick up home wins against Arizona and Seattle, and were likely to go 2-14 at best.  Waiting at the top of the 2012 draft board is Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.  While the Rams themselves have no need for Andrew, there are plenty of teams in the league that would be interested in acquiring the highly touted quarterback.  The Dolphins would probably make them a respectable offer to move up a spot or two, knowing that the Rams would likely trade the pick rather than simply let him fall.  That would still leave the Rams in position to grab Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon.  If they traded to the middle of the draft or later, they would get a ton in return.  Last year the Falcons gave up two 1^st round picks, a 2^nd round pick, and two 4^th round picks to move up twenty-one spots in the first round and to take the number two receiver in the draft, Julio Jones.  Even if they overpaid, the difference between the 2^nd wide receiver on the board and what many are calling a generational quarterback is massive.  The Rams could easily get that much if they traded down to the middle or late first round. 

The addition of Brandon Lloyd does not make the Rams a good team, but it does make them better.  It might make them 6-10 instead of 2-14, which would strip them of Luck leverage, and quite possibly prevent them from getting an impact receiver, which is undeniably their biggest need.  There’s no guarantee that the Rams won’t get the first pick even with the addition of Lloyd, and there’s no guarantee that they would have gotten it without him, but the move certainly does shift the odds.  Given the number of holes in the Rams’ starting lineup, and the weight that the Luck pick carries, it’s something that has to be considered when weighing the benefits of the trade. 

What the Rams are getting

If Brandon does reach 30 catches with the Rams he would finish the season with at least 49.  That would be the second highest in his nine year career.  Last year, at 29 years old, he had by far the best year of his career as he nearly doubled his career marks in both yardage and touchdowns.  Prior to last season, he’d broken 500 yards in a year only twice, and 700 only once.  He did a whole lot of nothing for seven years and then had great season.  He does have a good career average in YAC with 16, and his lack of total numbers early in his career might have something to do with the fact that he spent his first four seasons catching balls from: Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, and Mark Brunell.

His biggest immediate impact will be the fact that he knows the offense better than any receiver on this team, so Bradford should be able to count on him being in the right spot at the right time.  He’s also a legitimate deep threat and he does not drop passes.  Last year he scattered only four dropped passes as he collected his 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns.  If Kendricks had that touchdown to dropped pass ratio, he’d have 17 touchdowns after five games.  It will be a benefit for all Rams receivers to see what it looks like to be a successful professional in this system. 

Lloyd’s most important job for the rest of year is not to win games or score points, at least not directly.  His most important job, the reason the Rams traded for a rent-a-player after an 0-5 start; save the mental and physical health of Sam Bradford.  This organization’s number one priority right now is to maximize the development of their franchise quarterback.  A receiver that gets open quickly should save Sam a few poundings per game, and a receiver that can consistently catch 40 yard passes should bode well for Bradford’s confidence.

Lloyd will be a free agent at the end of this season and it may be difficult to keep him.  He has never experienced two things that all NFL players covet: a big contract and a Super Bowl win.  If he is able to continue his pace for the rest of the season he will have accrued over 2,500 total yards over two seasons.  While he may have to choose between the big payday and the chance to win a title, he will at least have put himself in a position to make that choice, and it’s not likely that the Rams will be able to offer him either.  It’s fair to assume that the Rams would not be Brandon’s first choice if he wanted to go to a contender.  The Patriots, Titans, and his original team, the 49ers, all expressed interest in acquiring Lloyd from the Broncos.  All of those teams appear to be closer to being a Super Bowl contender than the Rams.  The Rams will also be seriously limited in what they will be able to offer Lloyd in the way of cash.  Currently, after the addition of Lloyd and the release of Mike Sims-Walker, the Rams are about 2 million dollars under the cap (it’s actually more like 6 million, but they like to keep a buffer for incentive contingencies in various players’ contracts).  The only multi-million dollar player coming off the books next year is left guard Jacob Bell.  Bell is costing the Rams 3.1 million dollars against the cap this year.  Unfortunately, due to the nature of his restructured contract, he will hit the 2012 cap for 2.3 million dollars regardless of if or where he is playing.  According to Rams money man Kevin Demoff, the Rams will have about $10 million in cap space to work with during the 2012 offseason.  Even with the new rookie pay scale the Rams could easily spend half of that on draft picks alone.  With all of the holes this team has on both sides of the ball, I don’t see a way that they can afford to pay Lloyd enough to stay.     

If they somehow resign him to a reasonable extension, I'll like this deal.  In the meantime, I'm a little worried about pretending to be better than we actually are.  It's better for the team and the fan base if they grow steadily instead of bouncing back and forth.  I know I talked about boosting Bradford, but the return of Clayton and the continuing experience in the offense may have been enough to get through this season.  From a talent perspective this team still needs to be making top five draft picks, especially with the new pay scale.  They also don't need to be giving up 5th round picks, despite their lackluster track record, because they need every chance they can get at a cheap role player.  I don't know if Devaney meant to hang his job on this trade or not, but I think he did.  If Lloyd plays poorly it will simply be another name on the long list of Devany failures, but if Lloyd plays well, and they don't resign him, the fan base will call for heads on pikes

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