Wednesday, January 25, 2012

NFL Draft '12: My Early Top 10

Written by: Michael Handshear


I LOVE the NFL Draft.  Waking up the morning of the NFL Draft is kind of like the adult version of waking up on Christmas morning:  the air is thick with anticipation, and you can't wait to unveil the new presents that have been so perfectly wrapped for you.  It's a time for new beginnings and renewed hope. 
   
I've convinced myself to feel this way year after year, despite the Rams ruining every draft day with their comical blunders of talent evaluation.  It's hard to draft as poorly as the Rams have in recent years.  The 2006 draft may be the best (or worst, depending on how you look at it) example of the Rams ineptness.  In 2006, the Rams were able to accumulate five picks in the first three rounds.  With those picks, they selected (in order) Tye Hill, Joe Klopfenstein, Claude Wroten, Jon Alston and Dominique Byrd.  This draft was five years ago.  These players should be in their prime and the core of the Rams future.  Not one of these players is on the Rams roster.  Even better, not one of these five players are even in the NFL.  Pretty amazing.  I imagine any of us could pick five names out of a hat and had better success.


The Rams now have a new regime in place (again).  This one does come with a bit more experience and cache than its predecessors.  No one is saying that Jeff Fisher is Vince Lombardi, but he certainly isn't Steven Spagnuolo or Scott Linehan either.  Fisher has already put some strong coordinators in place, and the Rams are in the midst of finding their next general manager.  The general manager will (obviously) be a huge piece to the organization and after that hire is in place, we'll begin to get some insight on the new staff's draft strategy.  As Anthony stated in his first Mock "there several events between now and the draft (playoff results, Senior Bowl, free-agency, and the combine) that can shift draft boards, but it’s never too soon to start speculating.”  With that repeated, here's a quick look at my predictions for the Top 10:


#1: Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - My take: Stating the obvious here.  Let's move on.



#2: Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. - My take: The Rams simply CANNOT pass on Blackmon here.  Yes, the Rams need help at OT.  Actually, the Rams need help in a lot of areas.  But, the gap from Blackmon to the next WR is huge, and this gives Sam Bradford the true playmaker he needs.  And, this pick gives the Rams a unique physical WR that they haven't had through their entire time in St. Louis.  I say that with all due respect to Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt.  Those guys are great, potential Hall of Fame players, but they weren't really playmakers after the catch and didn't bring the physical red-zone presence that a player like Blackmon can.  In the NFL in 2012, having players like Blackmon is crucial to any offense.  The Rams should keep the #2 pick, take Blackmon, and not look back.
 
 
#3: Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC - My take: An easy pick for the Vikings, who are in great need of help in pass protection.  If the Rams pass on Kalil, it'll take the Vikings brass about thirty seconds to hand Roger Goodell an index card with Kalil's name of it.



#4: Browns - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - My take: Robert Griffin III would be the sexy pick here, but I think the Browns stick with Colt McCoy and take the safe choice.  Richardson has a chance to be a monster from Day 1 as a rookie.




#5: Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - My take: Claiborne is a complete CB, with the size and speed to excel early in his career.  Doesn't have the return skills of last year's #5 pick from LSU, Patrick Peterson, but could have a similar impact for the Bucs.


#6: Redskins - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor - My take: I have doubts about Griffin as a pro QB, but Mike Shanahan can't go another year with the combination of Rex Grossman and John Beck.  This gets the Redskins faithful very excited, but I'm not sure it gets them very many wins in 2012.


#7: Jaguars - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - My take: Floyd had some off-field issues at Notre Dame, but has the prototype size (6-3 / 224) for an NFL WR.  The Jags are about as desperate for a playmaker as the Rams, and there is always a team that reaches for a WR in the 1st Round.  The Jags are that team this year.


#8: Panthers - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina - My take: Coples strikes me as a bit of a head-case, but he did pile up solid numbers as a DE/DT at UNC.  He's an elite physical presence at 6-6 / 285, and the Panthers could easily sell the local product to their fan base.


#9: Dolphins - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - My take: I'm making this pick, forecasting that the Dolphins already have signed Matt Flynn to be their most recent QB of the future.  With Flynn in place, they'll take the next best OT on the board to protect him.


#10: Bills - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - My take: Yes, the Bills already have a solid secondary.  Yes, Kirkpatrick is an off-field risk with his recent drug possession charge.  But, Kirkpatrick is an elite talent and a game-changer that the Bills can't pass up at this spot.






Anthony posted his Early 1st Round Mock Draft last week: http://ramsaddiction.blogspot.com/2012/01/early-mock-round-1.html

Feel free to disagree with both of us in the comments.







3 comments:

  1. You may be right on Richardson at 4, but at some point GMs will stop drafting high 1st round RBs:
    2011 - Ingram 28th
    2010 - Spiller 10th, Matthews 12th, Best 30th
    2009 - Moreno 12th, Donald Brown 27th

    2011 leading rushers: Foster (undrafted), Ahmad Bradshaw (Round 7), Frank Gore (round 3), McGahee (1st round), Brandon Jacobs (Round 4), Ray Rice (2nd round), Isaac Redman (undrafted)

    That is a terrible ROI in my opinion...

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  2. Anonymous,

    The guys you mentioned that were picked in the 1st round were not high first round picks. Here are the RBs picked in the top 7 since 2005:

    McFadden (4th)
    Peterson (7th)
    Bush (2nd)
    Ronnie Brown (2nd)
    Cadillac Williams (5th)

    A couple of these guys are elite, but at least all of them are, or were, #1 RBs.

    I understand your point and agree that you can get better value for that position later in the draft. My point is simply that there are some exceptional RBs that can come out of the top of the 1st round.

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  3. Michael,

    I'm surprised you think the Rams should keep the #2 pick. He is not a top-notch, elite receiver. To use a #2 pick on a WR, he should be damn good, like Megatron or A.J. Green. In other words, it should be a game-changer. Blackmon, although probably very good, is not a game-changer. He is not as tall as those guys. He is not as fast as those guys. Those are attributes that made those two guys top 4 picks.

    I agree we need a WR-bad, real bad-, but not Blackmon at #2. The Rams have a lot of holes. Thus, they would be better suited by trading that pick and adding draft picks. Because the draft is thick with talent, they could still get a top talent player at a position they need by trading down in the first round (e.g., LT, CB, or even WR). Then, they would have additional picks to fill the other holes. Additionally, even if they trade down, not only would they add more picks, but also, they might still get Blackmon.

    ReplyDelete